Pakistan: Five Major Issues To Watch In 2023

1.ELECTION & POLITICAL UNREST

Like in 2022, politics will probably take up much of Pakistan's time and attention in 2023. The dramatic no-confidence vote in parliament in April that forced then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan out of office did not put a stop to the nation's slide toward political instability last spring. Since then, divisiveness and instability have only grown worse. Khan has led a well-liked opposition movement against the military and the ruling coalition, holding a number of sizable protests across the nation during the year.

Pakistan's political conflict won't end until 2023. Elections must be held nationwide by October of this year, according to the constitution, but the current administration has not bowed to Khan's demand for earlier elections. In order to survive Pakistan's dire economic crisis and its poor domestic performance, the government must delay things as long as it can. This is in its best political interest (its diplomatic foreign policy approach has fared better, but that may not matter for elections). It lost valuable political capital over the past year, and Khan's party fared well in a series of by-elections held in July and October.

The state has attempted to drag Khan and his party through the courts with the assistance of the courts using a well-known tactic used against opposition politicians in Pakistan, but with only limited success.

Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), two of Pakistan's four provinces, are still under the control of Khan's party, and the existing federal government's (illegal) attempts to usurp its authority in Punjab, the country's largest province, have failed (thanks to the courts). Khan's party started the process to dissolve the Punjab and KP assemblies this month to put pressure on the federal government to call early elections, giving the year a spectacular start. Who will win the upcoming general election still remains Pakistan's biggest political mystery. Will Shehbaz Sharif, the current prime minister's brother and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, return to Pakistan to lead the PML-N? Despite his conflict with the military, will Imran Khan triumph on the strength of popular support? Regardless of the outcome, considering the history of the top competitors, we can state the following: It's improbable that the country will alter course.

2. A VARIABLE ECONOMIC CONDITION

The disastrous floods of the summer did not cause Pakistan's economy's problem, which had been going on for months. The danger of default is increased by crippling inflation, a dramatic decline in the value of the rupee, and the country's precariously low level of $4.3 billion in foreign reserves, which can barely cover one month's worth of imports.

Pakistan has economic crises every few years as a result of its economy's imbalance between production and consumption, which makes it dependent on external debt. As the debt bill grows and payments become due, each situation gets worse. Internal political unrest and the flooding disaster have made it worse this year. However, the administration has been bogged down in partisan politics, and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) $1.1 billion loan tranche has yet to be released since Islamabad has resisted the IMF's requirements. The government has now turned to small-scale solutions that fall short of solving the issue, like banning imports and early mall and wedding hall closures.

3. FLOOD RECOVERY

A summer of catastrophic flooding in Pakistan was brought on by a "monsoon on steroids" that is directly related to climate change. Flooding in Pakistan has been compared to biblical events numerous times. More than 1,700 people were murdered, homes, infrastructure, and a sizable cornfield were devastated, and millions of people were left homeless. It submerged entire communities and caused a third of the country to be under water. Pakistan led the charge to include loss and damage on the COP27 agenda for the first time, contributing significantly to discussions about the devastating effects of climate change on developing countries.

4. MOUNTING INSECURITY

The Pakistani Taliban (or TTP), a terrorist organisation that murdered tens of thousands of Pakistanis between 2007 and 2014, has once again become a threat to Pakistan, albeit in a relatively small area due to Taliban rule in Afghanistan (for now). Last year, the group carried out at least 150 strikes in Pakistan, the majority of them were in the northwest. As a result of the TTP's safe haven in Afghanistan, the Pakistani government is more at a loss for how to deal with the organisation. The TTP is essentially opposed to the idea of the Pakistani state and constitution as they currently exist, hence the state's negotiations with the group have repeatedly failed, as they were inevitably going to.Unsurprisingly, the Afghan Taliban have not proven to be helpful in battling the TTP, and Pakistan's relations with the Afghan Taliban have severely deteriorated at the same time over other concerns, such as the border separating the two nations.Currently, Pakistan's first desire will be to use kinetic force to attack TTP targets inside its borders, but this will be constrained by TTP crossings into Afghanistan.

5. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS

Since November 29 of last year, Pakistan has had a new chief of army staff. General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had held the supreme position for six years, was succeeded by General Asim Munir (due to a three-year extension). Last year, there was a great deal of political controversy surrounding the choice of the army chief. Khan's disagreement with the military over the choice of senior army personnel played a significant role in his removal from office.

All eyes are now on Munir to see how civil-military ties develop.Few people in Pakistan trust Bajwa's claim that the army will stop being involved in political affairs when he left office. Election year is quickly approaching, and Munir will have the chance to demonstrate to the nation whether he would continue the work of his predecessor or forge new paths for civil-military ties in Pakistan. The former is supported by Pakistan's history.